Sarajevo Security Conference

The centerpiece of the Western Balkans Center is the annual Sarajevo Security Conference (SSC) which held its first international event in October 2023 and brought together domestic and international government officials, business executives, leading academics, and journalists to address the increasingly complex and volatile security environment of the Western Balkans. Building on the success of the first SSC, a second, larger conference attracted over 150 participants in Sarajevo in September 2024. Panels and speakers discussed the importance of reassessing Western strategies to counter Russia’s influence; the status of continued Western military support for Ukraine and strategies to disrupt Russian disinformation campaigns; the changing geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and its implications for Europe; the destabilizing influence of Croatia and Hungary in Bosnia and Herzegovina; and Serbia’s growing ties with China and the rise of sophisticated cyberattacks. Sessions also addressed potential challenges arising from a second Trump administration and its possible impact on NATO. The SSC 2024 was attended by representatives from international governments, NGOs, militaries, the private sector, and the diplomatic elite, and it was covered by over 100 news websites, Radio Free Europe and Al Jazeera Balkans, plus 25 TV stations, magazines, and radio programs that featured segments including the address by Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani-Sadriu and interviews with organizers and participants.

Notable attendees included: H.E. Thomas Fitschen, Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany; H.E. Henk van den Dool, Ambassador of the Netherlands; General Chris Badia, Deputy Supreme Allied Commander; Vice Admiral (ret) Kevin Donegan, Former Commander US 5th Fleet; Brigadier General Matthew Valas, NATO HQ Sarajevo; and members of parliament, defense ministers, and chiefs of staff from Bosnia-Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Albania and many others. The SSC 2024 resulted in memorandums of understanding (MOUs) for ongoing cooperation being signed by multiple organizations including the Dutch embassy in Sarajevo, the U.K. embassy in Sarajevo, the International Republican Institute, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, USIP, the Center for Cybersecurity Excellence (CSEC), and Al Jazeera Balkans.

Western Balkans Caucus

The Western Balkans Caucus identifies priorities for U.S. policy focus and builds relationships with policymakers who champion initiatives that promote overall institution building in the region, strengthening of key alliances, and coalition-building. The Caucus is a vehicle for Congress to address and engage with the key issues facing Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia-Herzegovina (BIH). For Montenegro, priorities include clarifying EU membership timelines and addressing concerns about Russian influence and the importance of securing reliable NATO partnerships, while for BIH, the Caucus is pushing for greater congressional attention on constitutional reform and NATO membership. The Caucus will create actionable language for proposed bills and resolutions, identify and track potential experts for congressional briefings, including both in-region experts (e.g., Kosovo, Montenegro) and U.S.-based specialists, identify congressional champions with a strong Russia/China policy focus, and align outreach with specific member interests (e.g., NATO, democracy-building, anti-corruption).

The Caucus will also map significant Balkan diaspora constituencies, including district-level data to strengthen the case for congressional engagement and prepare tailored messaging for specific members of Congress and proposed bills.

Western Balkans Observatory: Policy and Analysis Department

The Observatory is a source and convening point for those seeking information and connections on the Western Balkans. Our work fills a gap where no other information destination exists, capturing the latest news, analysis and observations from regional sources and offering a platform for discussion and solutions by key constituencies.

The Observatory creates and disseminates nonpartisan analysis on the Western Balkans and serves as a hub for policymakers, legislators, academics, and journalists throughout the West to access the latest analysis on the emerging challenges and crises in the region.

Through short- and long-form policy reports, country reports, explainers, anthologies, op-eds, podcasts, and more, we fill a void in policy-focused analysis amid deepening concern over the region’s deteriorating security.

Launched in 2023, the Center’s inaugural report, Western Balkans 2023: Assessment of Internal Challenges and External Threats, attracted international media attention and set the benchmark for dialogue on the issue, describing the current threat environment and presenting a comprehensive path forward.

Dayton Plus: A Policymaker’s Guide to Constitutional Reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina

This year marks the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA), a historic occasion ahead of which New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy will publish a landmark policy report, authored by Senior Non-Resident Fellow Dr. Jasmin Mujanović, providing an accessible yet comprehensive roadmap for constitutional reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). This roadmap, if implemented, can secure the country’s future membership in the EU and NATO.

The report, “Dayton Plus: A Policymaker’s Guide to Constitutional Reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina,” will provide decisionmakers with a simple but detailed breakdown of the shortcomings of BiH’s existing constitutional arrangements, the legal and political necessity of constitutional reform in the country, the sources of opposition to the same, and the possible and plausible pathways toward overcoming these barriers.

BiH’s existing constitution, i.e. Annex IV of the DPA, has frequently been characterized as the “most complex constitutional regime in the world.” And while the DPA has also been the most successful armistice in modern history, as a social contract it has failed to deliver rational governance, reform, or even basic political equality for all BiH citizens. As a result, since 2009, nearly every major pillar of the BiH Constitution has been struck down by the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), including a recent, sweeping decision in August 2023.

Without the implementation of the court’s rulings, BiH cannot advance on its EU and NATO accession paths. To implement the rulings, however, necessarily means BiH must undergo a significant process of constitutional reform. Yet since 2006, no major round of constitutional reform negotiations has produced meaningful progress toward the rationalization and democratization of BiH’s constitutional regime.

Worse, declining geopolitical conditions in the Western Balkans and Europe more broadly have reintroduced the troubling, looming specter of violence over BiH’s future. From overt threats of secession, to malign foreign interference in the country’s domestic affairs, both by neighboring states and new malign actors like Russia, China, and Hungary, BiH’s “European future” is no longer a certainty. Securing BiH’s place in the EU and in NATO requires urgency, agency, and vision.

The 10 succinct sections of the Dayton Plus report will provide both stand-alone answers to the most frequently asked questions by policymakers concerning the complexities of the existing BiH constitutional regime, while also providing an actionable roadmap for constitutional reform that can be accomplished through comparatively limited diplomatic and political engagement by key Western capitals and their local partners.

The New Lines Institute will publish the Dayton Plus report in early 2025. The report will be further promoted through a series of roundtables with policy communities in Washington, D.C., the EU capitals, and Bosnia-Herzegovina.