Serbia’s EU path stalls amid anti-corruption protests

The Big Picture: The muted EU response to Serbia’s growing anti-corruption protests shows the Union’s failure to recognize the implications of domestic instability for the larger geopolitical security.

The November 1, 2024 train station canopy collapse which killed 16 people in the Serbian city of Novi Sad, set off a series of student protests that has yet to abate five months later. Officials who approved the construction along with the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative-linked firms involved in the project, have been hesitant to take responsibility for the collapse of the recently renovated train station. As protests have gained momentum to around 400 municipalities across Serbia, top Serbian officials have resigned, including Minister of Construction, Transport, and Infrastructure Goran Vesić; Trade Minister Tomislav Momirović; Novi Sad Mayor Milan Đurić; and most recently Prime Minister Miloš Vučević. 

These resignations have done little to appease demonstrators who perceive it as a tactic to evade proper accountability and reform, rather than a genuine admission of remorse or a desire to prevent future accidents.

Insight: The Serbian anti-corruption protests have not launched or inspired a new political movement or party, nor do the protests have unified leadership that could oppose the government and ruling party politically. 

While this has allowed the protest movement to maintain a broad appeal across the Serbian political spectrum, it enables President Aleksandar Vučić to call another election at his convenience. Even as the Assembly of Serbia confirms the mandate of endocrinologist professor and Vučić ally Đuro Macut as prime minister, another election remains possible, barring protests dissipating. A snap election will likely lack formidable opposition candidates to defeat the ruling SNS party, especially as the party has benefited from a biased media environment, vote buying, and improper interference by Vučić. Even if an upcoming election were marred by irregularities, EU leaders are unlikely to demand a change in leadership. While many regional and EU officials might tacitly favor Vučić’s departure, few in Brussels or beyond are willing to use election issues as a reason to push for it.

Insight: The international response to the protests has been muted, and the European Commission remains neutral, an implicit endorsement of a Vučić-led Serbia.

Despite record-breaking peaceful protests across Serbia and mounting reports of police brutality and violence by politically affiliated hooligans, Brussels made no significant policy shifts. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos spoke with Vučić recently, conveying the expectation of the European Commission that Serbia follows a “European path”, a difficult expectation to enforce as EU member states including Hungary and Slovakia continue to openly back Vučić.

This dynamic leaves no clear way for the EU to impose external pressure on the Serbian government to change course, leaving Kos to merely encourage citizen-led political accountability. Many Serbs, including those younger and more educated, have lost faith in a future in the European Union.

Fundamentally, European powers view their geopolitical needs as superseding the importance of Serbia’s internal politics, while failing to recognize how Serbia’s domestic politics also influence the EU’s broader security concerns, particularly regarding Russian and Chinese destabilization efforts.

European leaders also recognize that Serbia lacks a cohesive and formidable liberal opposition, tacitly buying into Vučić’s long-held belief that any government that replaces him would be openly hostile to the EU. 

The bottom line: Despite protests that have drawn over 300,000 people, shut down Belgrade, and received widespread media coverage, the systematic change demanded by the protesters seems unlikely to come from either the Serbian government or the EU.

Barring a major domestic political upheaval or greater international pressure on the government, leaders on both sides of the Atlantic will have to contend with an increasingly unstable Serbian political environment. Policymakers in Brussels, Washington, London, and elsewhere will need to decide whether to deviate from a course that upholds the status quowhile failing to recognize the role that domestic politics play in broader geopolitical and security concerns of the Euro-Atlantic Community.