Croatia and Hungary as Malign Actors in the Western Balkans

This report is part of the larger anthology “Western Balkans 2023: Assessment of Internal Challenges and External Threats”

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In his essay, Jasmin Mujanović contends that the real "malign actors" in the Western Balkans can be found not in Moscow or Beijing, but within the Euro‑Atlantic fold—specifically, Croatia and Hungary—whose covert interventions in Bosnia and Herzegovina undermine regional stability and long-term Western interests.

Croatia, under Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, has pursued a post‑2016 strategy of exerting political control over Bosnia via its affiliate, HDZ BiH. Zagreb has pressed for sectarian amendments to electoral and constitutional frameworks, effectively co‑opting Bosnia’s domestic politics through proxy influence rather than sovereignty. The case of Željana Zovko—shifted seamlessly from Bosnian envoy to Croatian MEP—embodies this cross-border politicization and has facilitated coordination with EU leadership to shape Bosnia’s internal affairs.

Meanwhile, Hungary, under Viktor Orbán, has materially backed Milorad Dodik’s secessionist Republika Srpska, funneling financial resources while blocking EU sanctions. Hungary’s influence extends into EU institutions—as evidenced by Oliver Várhelyi’s appointment as the EU’s Western Balkans commissioner and his reported coordination with Dodik on internal Bosnian matters.

Mujanović warns that Western complacency or tacit complicity with these actions risks empowering true external adversaries. If the EU and U.S. cannot curb allies undermining their own strategic objectives, they stand little chance against Russia or China in the region.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not an official policy or position of the New Lines Institute's Western Balkans Center.