Weekly Analysis
Protests Shake Western Balkans As Great Power Competition Takes Hold
WBC Staff - 2 Jun 2026
Weekly Analysis
WBC Staff
Great-power competition remains a largely influential factor in Western Balkans dynamics.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić continues to navigate domestic turmoil radiating from sustained antigovernment protests by attempting to consolidate international support from actors like China.
Bosnia and Herzegovina continues to face challenges in building a cohesive nation following Christian Schmidt’s resignation as high representative, as former Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik moves closer to Russia.
In Albania, a U.S.-linked development project faced opposition, leading to clashes between protesters and police.
Sustained antigovernment protests turned violent in Belgrade as student protesters clashed with riot police during a mass demonstration. Protestors are demanding early presidential elections, rule of law, and an end to the Vučić regime. While protests have been ongoing since the Novi Sad rail station collapse in November 2024, this marks a renewed push. According to the Archive of Public Gatherings, an NGO that specializes in crowd sizing, an estimated 180,000 protestors rallied, although police estimates are around 34,300, demonstrating an attempt to downplay the situation.
Vučić responded in a video on Instagram, saying that the Archive’s attendance numbers were deceptive and that protesters “have shown their violent nature and that they cannot stand political opponents,” seeking to frame the protesters as a threat to the state. His response is in line with Vučić’s “escalate to de-escalate” tactic, which he similarly utilizes in relation to affairs with Kosovo.
The Serbian railway suspended services to Belgrade amid the protests. While the rail company did not provide an explanation as to why, this is the third time services have been suspended prior to a protest, leading to suspicions that the action represents as an attempt to prevent attendance.
Vučić also seeks to garner international legitimacy to reconsolidate control. Following a visit to Beijing and a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Vučić said China will invest $1.1 billion into Serbia’s energy, AI, auto, and infrastructure sectors. He went on to say that agreements were made with over 20 Chinese companies and that money will start being transferred in July. China also offered to build a modular nuclear reactor in Serbia. Although Vučić noted the offer was concrete, he made clear that Serbia is still considering options for partnerships.
The ongoing protests are partially over skepticism surrounding foreign investment into Serbia’s infrastructure. Specifically with Novi Sad, allegations of government corruption, secrecy, and negligence, particularly in relation to over $1 billion from Chinese contractors, inflamed pushback.
Other concerns sustaining these protests are increasing constraints on media freedom and democratic backsliding. This week, an agreement was reached for the sale of Adria News, which operates N1, to Alpac Capital, the majority owner of Euronews. N1 is one of the last independent television stations that reports on the protests. Despite a mission of independent journalism, Euronews has been accused of taking money from authoritarian regimes, including from former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Although News Director Branislav Sovljanski said there has been no pressure to change the outlet’s ethos or topics covered, civil society organizations have expressed concern. Earlier in May, more than 20 organizations issued a joint statement claiming the N1 acquisition “could represent one of the most significant threats with far-reaching consequences for media pluralism in Europe in recent history.”
Former U.S. Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina Michael Murphy said EU accession may not be the best path forward for BiH to preserve its territorial integrity. His comment was made in reference to the upcoming meeting of the Peace Implementation Council Steering Board, the body overseeing the implementation of the Dayton framework, which will discuss the future of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) after Schmidt’s resignation.
Although Murphy is no longer in government, his statement is indicative of a larger trend of a departure from the partnership between the EU and United States when it comes to Western Balkan affairs and conflict mediation. This is demonstrated with the State Department’s Report to Congress on United States Policy to Promote Regional Stability and Prosperity in the Western Balkans, which outlined an “end to nation building” and expressed a willingness to “develop positive relationships with all actors in the region.”
While reconfirming the U.S. commitment to Dayton Peace Agreement, the document omits specific reference to the Office of High Representative and Milorad Dodik. Instead, it passively refers to “decisive U.S. diplomacy” that “helped end BiH’s most acute crisis since the 1992-1995 conflict,” referring to Washington’s role in diffusing the 2025 RS crisis following Dodik’s conviction, but it fails to mention the decision to lift sanctions on Dodik. This points to a discrepancy in the administration’s willingness to rhetorically advocate the territorial integrity and sovereignty of BiH and lack of tangible pressure on the political actors that continuously test the limits of the nation’s cohesion. Without such consistency, the Trump administration is signaling a passive shift away from emphasis on institutional capacity building and toward bilateral partnerships. Even a slight nod toward euroskepticism and dealignment with EU accession goals from the U.S. could catalyze rhetorical weaponization by opportunistic leadership in RS to continue pressing for secession or parallel political structures that would further hinder the country’s plans for cohesion.
Rhetorical maneuvering could be dangerous when paired with hedging tactics for international legitimacy. Dodik arrived in Moscow on May 26 for the International Security Conference, his second visit to Russia in three weeks after his attendance at Russia’s Victory Day parade on May 9. Dodik’s deepening ties with Russia will heighten Western skepticism and narratives of imperialistic international intervention, further deteriorating EU accession prospects by adding the perception of legitimacy to U.S. claims.
Seventeen people are facing criminal charges for escalatory protests at a disputed coastal development site in southern Albania. Protesters and security clashed during a gathering of activists opposed to a large tourism project being developed by private company Zvërnec South Adriatic Development. Opposition stems from disputed land ownership, environmental protection concerns, and legality of construction. Permits for the company were reportedly linked to U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, which has led to allegations of political favoritism and opaque investment.
This wariness most likely stems from Albania’s high-profile corruption scandal, in which former Deputy Prime Minister and Infrastructure Minister Belinda Ballaku was accused of manipulating public tenders and favoring specific companies for infrastructure projects. This case has led to political pushback on Prime Minister Edi Rama, as the leading opposition party has organized anti-government protests that continue to call for Rama’s resignation and pressure Albania’s governance capacity.
As Western Balkan nations navigate infrastructural development to strengthen domestic institutions, it is often at the expense of alignment with traditional liberal international forums. Consequentially, great-power competition is becoming increasingly entrenched in regional affairs. Paired with heightened domestic pushback, these factors risk stalling EU accession pathways and sustaining regional turmoil.
The weakening Euro-Atlantic partnership, visible in Washington’s passive dealignment from the EU’s accession goals, leaves more room for the United States to seek to increase its influence by capitalizing on bilateral economic engagement. That said, protests in Albania surrounding a U.S.-linked development project, as well as those ignited in Serbia by the Chinese investment-linked Novi Sad tragedy, should serve as a warning that international investment can become weaponized locally to spur and sustain conflict that may inadvertently lead to authoritarian upgrading and democratic backsliding.
Weekly Analysis
Protests Shake Western Balkans As Great Power Competition Takes HoldWBC Staff - 2 Jun 2026
Weekly Analysis
Banjska Attack Verdict Raises Questions on Future of Serbia-Kosovo DialogueWBC Staff - 29 Apr 2026