Russia’s Influence in the Balkans

This report is part of the larger anthology “Western Balkans 2023: Assessment of Internal Challenges and External Threats”

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Ivana Stradner’s essay incisively exposes how the Kremlin—leveraging its alliance with Serbia—is deploying hybrid warfare to destabilize the Western Balkans, diverting Western attention from Ukraine. Without overt military force, Russia weaponizes information operations, religious institutions, and nationalist movements to inflame ethnic tensions and portray itself as the region’s indispensable peace broker.

Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić manipulates this dynamic masterfully: sows and diffuses crises, positioning himself as moderate and secure, all while entrenching his domestic power through alliances with far-right factions—ultimately reinforcing Russia’s regional influence.

Russia’s psychological warfare—termed “information security”—combines technical cyber tactics with profound cognitive manipulation, shaping perceptions through disinformation campaigns, controlled media, and Church networks across North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Kosovo.

Kosovo and Bosnia are particularly perilous flashpoints: Russia and Serbia exploit Orthodox religious sensitivities in Kosovo, while in Bosnia, Milorad Dodik’s moves toward legal secession of Republika Srpska, encouraged by Moscow, threaten to resurrect warring cleavages.

Stradner recommends a Western strategic counter-offensive: relentless information operations that expose Russian unreliability, robust investments in independent media, and deployment of hybrid‑warfare resilience teams across vulnerable Western Balkan states. The goal: flip the script, placing Moscow and Belgrade on the defensive rather than the other way around.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not an official policy or position of the New Lines Institute's Western Balkans Center.