Western Balkan States are Hedging their Alliances

The World Economic Forum, highlighting a growing rift between the U.S. and European Union, shaped the week of Jan. 20-26 in the Western Balkans as European leaders reacted to U.S. pressure surrounding Greenland, U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed Board of Peace, and renewed tariff threats.

Although local politics in the region still run through external anchors, particularly EU accession, U.S. diplomacy, and security guarantees, the World Economic Forum displayed an evident misalignment of those anchors. Western Balkan states, which now face the dilemma of how to navigate their foreign policies when Washington and Brussels are pulling in different directions, responded in various ways.

Despite Serbia’s and Albania’s positioning as juxtaposing regional powers – in which Belgrade outwardly proclaims a deteriorating liberal world order and Tirana projects itself as a faithful frontrunner for EU accession– both are responding similarly to the growing U.S.-EU division as both look for opportunities for increased economic engagement with the U.S.

Montenegro, commonly overshadowed in the regional narrative space, is using the opportunity to deviate from its neutrality and project commitment toward EU accession, especially as Albania – its main counterpart as accession frontrunner– appears to be adopting Serbia’s maneuvering strategy.

For Kosovo, security remains a priority, but President Vjosa Osmani’s enthusiasm toward Washington comes with a security risk should a larger NATO-U.S. divide occur.

Serbia 

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić used the opportunity to call for medium and small powers to work together in the face of deteriorating geopolitical conditions he described as “the divorce between Europe and the United States.”

Although such discourse falls in line with Belgrade’s deepening multi-vector policy, explicit reference to the growing divide in Western order prompts narrative space that places pressure on regional governments to signal a position between Washington and Brussels.

Combined with tangible tensions derived from the EU suspension of a trade deal with the U.S. in protest over its push to control Greenland, this reinforces and propels Belgrade’s objectives by seemingly legitimizing Vučić’s claims of an increasingly fragmented international order.

In the midst of the strained U.S.-EU trade relations, Belgrade made U.S.-based Archer Aviation its preferred electric air taxi partner. Per the agreement signed at Davos, Serbia has the option to purchase an initial fleet of Archer's Midnight aircraft and will buy up to 25 aircraft.

The U.S. also extended the sanctions waiver for Serbia's Russian-owned NIS, giving it another month to continue importing Russian oil.

Amid criticism of the diplomatic order, these agreements demonstrate economic partnership as a main driver of Serbian foreign policy.

Albania

Positive response to Trump’s invitation for Albania to join the Board of Peace shows that Washington’s opinion carries a heavy weight in Albania.

This is specifically evident as Albania’s status on the U.S. immigration visa suspension list sparked division among governing officials. Opposition Member of Parliament Belind Këlliçi blamed “the leader of the first narco-state in Europe Edi Rama” for Albania’s placement on the “blacklist.” Such fractures are consistent with on-going protests, led by opposition leader and former Prime Minister Sali Berisha, calling for the removal of Rama. This exemplifies the fragile state of Albania’s internal politics.

Although a positive relationship with Washington remains a common priority, current leadership's emphasis on economic policy is increasingly criticized by opposition and civil society. Notably, the Albanian government granted strategic investment status for a proposal from a partnership aligned with Trump’s son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner to develop a luxury resort, which has ignited pushback from environmental organizations. Kushner recently pulled out of a similar investment project in Serbia after controversies flared over the site, a bombed-out Yugoslav army headquarters.

The geopolitical signaling that comes from switching from Serbia to Albania emphasizes a potential growing competition between the two countries for economic relations with the United States, hinting at a shift toward a geoeconomically driven foreign policy guiding the dominant powers in the Western Balkans.

Montenegro 

Montenegro slightly deviated from its previous neutrality that followed the U.S. capture of Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro. Although Montenegrin President Jakov Milatović acknowledged that both the EU and U.S. are important strategic allies and advocated for continued dialogue among NATO members, he confirmed that Montenegro’s foreign policy remains in alignment with the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy. 

At the same time, on the sidelines of Davos, Prime Minister Milojko Spajić met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to prepare for his visit to Montenegro that will center around the nation’s role in regional security. 

Taken together, this highlights Podgorica’s opportunistic maneuvering to demonstrate its faithful alignment toward the liberal order as regional counterparts – primarily Albania, which remains on relatively equal footing with Montenegro as a frontrunner for EU accession– pull toward Washington for security and economic guarantees.

Kosovo 

While accepting the invitation to join the Board of Peace, President Vjosa Osmani praised Trump, stating that “true leadership does not only speak about peace, it makes it happen." 

The significance of this statement lies within the reported launch of Kosovo’s longest-range combat drone to date. Such activity signals Pristina feels a tangible threat coming from Belgrade amid Serbia's growing detachment from the Western order and increased defense spending. By praising Washington on a global stage within an atmosphere currently dominated by splintering relationships between the U.S. and NATO and the EU, Kosovo is signaling that it still looks to the United States for security provisions. 

A deepening divide could have significant implications for the future of Kosovo’s security, which largely depends on the NATO-led peacekeeping force KFOR to mitigate conflict escalation with Serbia and develop its own security forces.

Regional Implications 

Rising tensions in a symbiotic partnership once synonymous with the liberal world order increases pressure on regional actors to choose between the EU and NATO, and Washington. As such, further splintering of EU-U.S. relations will have profound implications for the trajectory of regional stability and security. 

The preference of leading regional powers for economic offerings granted by deepening partnership with Washington risks Albania’s status as a frontrunner for EU accession and blurs the lines between two collocating actors. 

At the same time, Kosovo’s security vulnerabilities are increasing, while countries that have been historically less influential in shaping regional dynamics are using the opportunity to confirm commitment to the EU rules-based order they have long been working toward. 

Overall, this emerging dynamic heightens regional competition for economic and security provisions, ultimately posing the question of whether Washington’s construction of global relations based on geoeconomic policy is more enticing than continuing the track toward an EU rules-based order.